In a contributed column for ACHR NEWS, Extu CEO Nichole Gunn examines how rising input costs on aluminum, steel, and diesel fuel are squeezing HVAC contractor margins and threatening project pipelines heading into the second half of 2026. Rather than defaulting to reactive pricing strategies, Gunn argues that the HVAC ecosystem—manufacturers, distributors, and contractors—should use data-driven engagement and behavior-based incentive programs to maintain partner loyalty and protect momentum.
Key Points
- New data from Associated Builders and Contractors shows a 3.8% spike in nonresidential construction input costs, with direct impacts on ductwork, coils, and transportation
- Ecosystem-level data can reveal early warning signs of a contractor slowdown—such as longer quote-to-purchase cycles, product mix shifting to base-tier models, and declining training engagement—before order volume drops
- Traditional SPIFFs lose efficacy in cost-constrained environments; behavior-based incentives that reward training completion, inventory stocking, and compliant installations address the structural pressures contractors face
- Distributors play a critical role by using targeted rewards to help contractors prioritize products with better long-term reliability and lower installation labor costs